Democratic Domination in the Old Dominion Danger signs abound for the GOP, with a few caveats. Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley, Sabatos Crystal Ball November 9th, 2017. BibMe Free Bibliography Citation Maker MLA, APA, Chicago, Harvard. Larry J. Sabatos Crystal Ball. The consequences of the awful allegations against Roy Moore plus, stirrings of an upset in TennesseeKyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley, Sabatos Crystal Ball. November 1. 6th, 2. Editors note The Crystal Ball will not be publishing next week. We wish our readers a Happy Thanksgiving. Its amazing to write, and theres time for our outlook to change, but here goes A Democrat is now a narrow favorite to win a Senate special election in Alabama. Were changing our rating of the Dec. Likely Republican all the way to Leans Democratic. U5QN3agI/0.jpg' alt='Crystal Report Product Key 2013' title='Crystal Report Product Key 2013' />Crystal Reports tutorials cover creating and analyzing charts and metrics. 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Republicans already were deeply worried about former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moores R Senate candidacy even before he defeated appointed Sen. Luther Strange R in a runoff. Snes9x 1.39. Still, even a below average GOP Senate candidate should still be able to hold Alabama, one of the hardest states for a Democrat to win statewide in the Union By percentage, the Yellowhammer State was President Donald Trumps sixth best state in the 2. Democrat to the Senate since 1. Democrat, Sen. Richard Shelby, switched parties in 1. Republican. And yet, Moores candidacy has gone from troubled to radioactive as he has been rocked by very credible allegations of sexual improprieties with teenage girls several decades ago. The story is even more damaging to Moore because of some of the made for TV visuals that have accompanied the alleged victims stories, most notably Moores signature in a high school yearbook belonging to one of his accusers. As Sen. Ted Cruz R TX said in retracting his endorsement of Moore, grown men dont typically sign high school girls yearbooks. Meanwhile, former U. S. Attorney Doug Jones D has run a competent campaign and has begun to use the latest developments to try to boost his standing among Republicans who might reconsider supporting Moore in the Dec. Polls, already close before the really bad stories about Moore began appearing about a week ago, seem to have tightened further, with Jones even leading in some. For instance, Politicos Alex Isenstadt reported on Wednesday that the National Republican Senatorial Committee no friend of Moores even before the sexual misconduct stories broke, to be sure has Moore down 5. Jones in its polling. However, were not sure how useful polls will be in this race Anticipating turnout in a special election like this is very hard. What we do know is 1. Last weeks elections and special elections conducted throughout the year have shown high levels of Democratic enthusiasm in both liberal and conservative jurisdictions 2. Jones is likely to have a big resource advantage in this race hes already outspent Moore 1. TV ads, according to Advertising Analytics with national Republicans staying away from Moore and 3. Moore may have trouble preventing poor Republican turnout given his horribly damaged candidacy. National Republicans, who have no use for Moore anyway and dread having him as part of their Senate caucus because of his extreme conservatism and go it alone attitude, have been issuing extraordinary statements about Moore, necessitated by the extraordinarily damaged Moore candidacy. Sen. Cory Gardner R CO, the NRSC chairman and thus the man most responsible for preserving the GOPs slim majority next year, said that if Moore is elected, the Senate should move to expel him. Senate Majority Leader Mitch Mc. Connell R KY said I believe the women on Monday when asked about Moore and his accusers, using a phrase that has become associated with the flood of women and some men who have come forward across many different industries in the wake of the fall of film executive Harvey Weinstein with very believable accusations of abhorrent sexual behavior by powerful men. Moores position seems to be eroding by the moment. As of this writing Wednesday afternoon, even seemingly ironclad Moore allies like Sean Hannity of Fox News and Trump ally Steve Bannon of Breitbart were having second thoughts about backing him. Its worth nothing that none of the aforementioned figures is an Alabama voter. Republicans are considering various stunts to shake off Moore. One hypothetical option would be for Gov. Kay Ivey R to cancel or shift the timing of the special election in some way so as to replace Moore on the ballot or to have a brand new election. Were not lawyers, so who knows if that would be possible, but some conservatives have thrown around the idea. However, using a procedural trick to get rid of Moore doesnt really seem like fair play, although we also can understand the impulse to resort to extraordinary means to block his potential election. Moreover, halting an election because of an increased likelihood that your party could lose a Senate seat seems akin to being in a banana republic. At present, Ivey has no plans to move the election. Its also possible that state Republicans could effectively revoke Moores nomination, but even then he would remain on the ballot if he won, its unclear whether the election would be null and void or whether, potentially, the second place finisher almost certainly Jones would be the winner. Another option is for the GOP to run a write in campaign. The GOP wants Moore to leave the race, but even if he did and theres little indication he will, his name would remain on the ballot, and votes cast for him would not go to the write in candidate potentially Strange, though Mc. Connell has also mentioned beleaguered Attorney General Jeff Sessions, whose appointment to Trumps Cabinet precipitated this special election. That is a possible avenue to victory for the Republicans, but the logistics are daunting. Yes, Sen. Lisa Murkowski R AK saved her career through a write in bid after losing a 2. However, as our friend Michael Carey, a veteran Alaska reporter and observer, reminded us, the circumstances in Alabama are a lot different. For one thing, Murkowski announced her write in bid 4. November 2. 01. 0 general election and her campaign apparatus from the primary was still intact when she launched, while the GOP Moore alternative would have less than a month and presumably would have to build a campaign from scratch or hastily reassemble Stranges political team. Alaska also has less than one sixth the population of Alabama, so it would be harder to get the word out about a write in candidacy in the latter than it was in the former. In other words, the GOP doesnt seem to have many real options to supplant Moore even if he drops out, his name would remain on the ballot and prove a hindrance to a write in option. Despite all of this, Moore could still win to us, Jones is only a small favorite at this point, and theres still a month to go in the race. Alabama after all is a very Republican state President Trump won it by 2. Alabamians will vote forany Republican over any Democrat. It is also worth noting that President Trump won last year despite the Access Hollywood tape and sexual assault allegations, but assuming that other politicians are blessed with the same Teflon as the president may not be the right way of approaching this. As noted earlier, Moore was already a weak candidate who only won by four points in his last election, a state Supreme Court race in 2. This race is beginning to remind us of the 2. Missouri Senate race. That year, Sen. Claire Mc. Caskill D should have been an underdog in a red trending state that Mitt Romney would win by nine points, but her preferred opponent, Rep. Java. Script Character Key Codes. ASP. NET,C. NET,VB. NET,JQuery,Java. Script,Gridview. If you enjoyed this post, please support the blog below. Its FREE. Get the latest Asp. C. net, VB. NET, j. Query, Plugins Code Snippets for FREE by subscribing to our Facebook, Twitter, RSS feed, or by email.